Source: Regional Economies
Author: Ryan Whalen
Date published: 2026-03-05
[original article can be accessed via hyperlink at the end]

In the chaos of the Iran conflict, U.S. consumers may soon face “sticker shock” as disruptions to the global energy supply chain threaten to drive fuel costs sharply higher, according to researchers at Kansas State University.

While market volatility is already occurring in the short term, the long-term economic impacts of the conflict in Iran may not be clear for months or even years. However, Kansas State University associate professor Gregg Ibendahl, an agricultural economist, says gas prices could spike due to disruptions in energy production and transportation, potentially reaching $4 a gallon within weeks.

Oil in Iran and the Middle East

Ibendahl specializes in agricultural production finance, with a focus on seasonal fuel pricing and its impact on the agriculture industry. Based on his experience, he notes that past instability in the Middle East has triggered major oil price shocks. The three key pillars he identifies—governments, economies, and shipping infrastructure—are all under threat from the current conflict.

Between Saturday’s strikes and the reopening of markets on Monday morning, crude oil futures increased by 8%, rising from $67 to $72 per barrel. So far this week, prices have fluctuated between $74 and $76 per barrel.

Historical Price Trends

Ibendahl examined two decades of oil and gas price data to determine the relationship between crude oil prices and gasoline costs. According to his analysis, every $1 per barrel increase in crude oil prices typically translates to about 2.4 cents per gallon at the pump.

“Prior to this weekend, U.S. regular gasoline averaged $2.98 per gallon nationally,” Ibendahl said. “With the baseline $6 per barrel increase, prices could rise to between $3.10 and $3.16 within a month. Remember too, oil prices rose to $130 per barrel shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, leading to gas prices of around $5 per gallon.”

According to Ibendahl, fluctuations in crude oil prices typically appear in gasoline prices about a week later. However, their effects can last much longer, influencing prices for more than a month—especially during periods of uncertainty about stability in major oil-producing regions.

Chaos in Iran

Ibendahl noted that his projections did not account for several major factors that could drive prices even higher. These include the possibility of prolonged regional violence and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A 21-mile-wide waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Ibendahl estimates that shutting the strait could push oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has already claimed to have closed the strait, threatening vessels that attempt to enter. In response, some shipping companies have suspended traffic through the waterway, choking off a critical route for Middle Eastern oil exports. The Trump administration has stated that it is prepared to provide naval escorts to facilitate the resumption of shipping.

Damage to oil production facilities in the region could push prices even higher than the $100 per barrel mark. At that level, gasoline prices could climb to $4 a gallon or more, Ibendahl said. A prolonged conflict, similar to the Russian-Ukrainian war, could send energy prices sharply higher.

”Longer term, the price increase could be 4.2 cents per gallon for every dollar per barrel,” Ibendahl concluded. “While conflict may be occurring in the Persian Gulf, the resulting impact on gas prices will be felt at stations nationwide before the end of the month.”

Ryan Whalen covers science and technology for The Debrief. He holds an MA in History and a Master of Library and Information Science with a certificate in Data Science. He can be contacted at ryan@thedebrief.org, and follow him on Twitter @mdntwvlf.

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https://thedebrief.org/gas-prices-around-5-per-gallon-economist-warns-of-rising-fuel-costs-as-conflict-in-iran-escalates/